25th Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum – Strategic Minerals

James Black highlighted the strategic complexity and uncertainty surrounding critical minerals. He emphasized that while governments and companies often frame challenges in terms of “risk,” true understanding is limited because supply chains are complex, opaque, and rapidly changing, with both known threats (e.g., geopolitical tension, corruption, climate impacts) and “unknown unknowns” (unpredictable cascading disruptions).

To address these challenges, Black recommended a three-pronged approach:

1. Evidence and Analysis – Gather and integrate diverse data sources, use scenario planning, wargaming, and other analytical tools to understand vulnerabilities and potential disruptions.
2. Information and Intelligence Sharing – Promote communication across governments, industries, and international partners to build shared understanding and foster cooperation, as no nation can achieve full independence in strategic minerals.
3. Holistic and Inclusive Engagement – Engage not only governments and businesses, but also academia, media, and society at large, raising awareness of dependencies and fostering resilience at both organizational and societal levels.

He framed critical minerals as a “wicked problem” requiring broad, coordinated, and forward-looking strategies, similar in principle to approaches used in cybersecurity and complex supply chain management.