27th Parliamentary-Intelligence Security Forum – The Korean Peninsula

Dr. Jae H. Ku, Senior Fellow for U.S. Korea Relations at the Center for the National Interest, addressed the forum by shifting from his planned topic on North Korea’s role in the Russia–Ukraine war to the sudden political crisis in South Korea. He reacted with surprise to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s late-night declaration of martial law, describing it as unprecedented and ironic, given that it was justified as a step to “safeguard democracy” against alleged pro North Korea, anti-state forces. Special forces briefly surrounded the National Assembly, but lawmakers including members of the ruling People Power Party successfully voted to nullify the declaration. President Yoon later accepted the Assembly’s resolution and rescinded the order, though he continued blaming the opposition for obstructing governance.

Dr. Ku explained that the opposition, which holds a strong majority in the National Assembly, is now pursuing impeachment. If passed, the case would move to the Constitutional Court, which currently has only six justices, all of whom would need to participate in the ruling. Should impeachment succeed, a snap presidential election must be held within 60 days. He suggested that political momentum favors opposition leader Lee Jae myung as a potential successor.

Turning to security implications, Dr. Ku expressed concern about the future of the U.S.–South Korea alliance and trilateral cooperation with Japan. He warned that a new progressive administration could slow or reassess security alignment with the United States and Japan at a time when a new U.S. administration is set to take office. While South Korea has an opportunity to stabilize its democracy through constitutional processes, he voiced pessimism about the near-term trajectory of the alliance and regional security dynamics.